Filip Zikes, Jozef Barunik, Nikhil Shenai
posted by Matúš Medo
(20 August 2012)
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(86 views, 74 downloads, 0 comments )
This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model
by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to
the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential $\beta$-mixing
as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly persistent
autocorrelation. We study analytically and by simulation how this feature of
durations generated by the MSMD process propagates to counts and realized
volatility. We employ a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the MSMD
parameters based on the Whittle approximation and establish its strong
consistency and asymptotic normality for general MSMD specifications. We show
that the Whittle estimation is a computationally simple and fast alternative to
maximum likelihood. Finally, we compare the performance of the MSMD model with
competing short- and long-memory duration models in an out-of-sample
forecasting exercise based on price durations of three major foreign exchange
futures contracts. The results of the comparison show that the MSMD and LMSD
perform similarly and are superior to the short-memory ACD models.
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